European Union's Influence on Global Climate Change Talks Leaves Something to be Desired, According to Energy Nominee

Gunther Oettinger is not exactly a household name today, but it's a good bet that in the next year anyone interested in energy policy is going to know exactly who he is.

Mr. Oettinger, shown at left, has been nominated as the European Union Energy Commissioner, a position that he should be confirmed to later this month. In this role he will help develop and implement the EU's energy policy.

What has caught observers a bit by surprise is how candid Mr. Oettinger was last week in his confirmation hearings before the European Parliament. In effect, Mr. Oettinger said that the EU's lack of international influence was clear for all to see in its lack of impact at the UN Conference on Climate Change at Copenhagen in December.

Generally speaking, nominees for the European Commission -- the EU's executive -- are not greatly forthcoming in their hearings. Better to be safe than sorry, I suppose.

However, Mr. Oettinger put caution to the wind when he said, "If the Copenhagen summit showed us one thing, it is that the European Union isn't big enough for world authority when it comes to countries like China." He was referring to the fact that the EU as a body was not a central player when the summit got down to tough talks. Despite the fact that the EU is the only major governmental entity to have in place a carbon cap-and-trade system, China and the U.S. --neither of which has anywhere close to the same commitment -- were calling the shots.

What does this mean for EU influence? In the short term, it is obvious -- even to Brussels -- that the EU does not "punch its weight" when in comes to international issues. Moreover, the hallways in Brussels must also be a bit bleaker when EU stalwarts recognize that they still remain the "only game in town" when it comes to a serious cap-and-trade system. On the other hand, Europe often seems comfortable reminding other countries what they should be doing but aren't.

Disappointing as it might be to European leaders, Washington and Beijing don't seem particularly interested in what the Europeans are doing in relation to climate change.

Two other European Commissions nominees to keep your eye on: Janez Potocnik, Slovenian economist, who has been nominated for Environment Commissioner and Connie Hedegaard, Danish journalist, who has been nominated for Climate Action Commissioner.

The three should be highly visible figures as the EU plots its environment/energy/and climate action strategies between now and 2014.

Meanwhile, within the EU discussion has resumed about whether the Union should increase its CO2 reduction commitment to 30 percent by 2020, up from the 20 percent it has already agreed to. According to euobserver.com ("EU States Divided Over Jump to 30 Percent Cut in CO2," Jan. 18, 2010), Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, and the UK favor a move to 30 percent while such a move is opposed by Italy and Poland. Belgium has suggested, as a compromise, 25 percent.

--Don C. Smith

Happy 4th of July...From the European Union and Stockholm!

All of us in Denver wish the readers of this blog a Happy (but a bit belated) 4th of July! And we aren't the only ones wishing you the best.

Our program's "man" in Stockholm, Marcus Oscarsson, was featured on a national news show for Sweden's TV4 yesterday. Marcus, who some of you may be familiar with if you've taken "European Union Environmental Law & Policy" from me, joined a roundtable discussion about this 4th of July and America's mood as perceived from a European perspective.

And for those of you who don't know Marcus, let me tell you a little about him. Marcus and I became acquainted nearly 10 years ago when he was an intern at the Swedish-American Chamber of Commerce in Denver. That year, to be precise in the spring of 2001, Sweden's government was serving as the president of the EU and Marcus helped arrange for me -- recently returned from several years working in the EU -- to speak to the Denver group. Since then, we have become fast friends and he has helped me in my numerous offerings of "EU Law & Policy" and "EU Environmental Law & Policy."

For the next six months, Marcus is part of the Swedish government's EU presidency. This is a particularly important six months for the EU for many reasons, not least of which is that Sweden will lead the EU's delegation to the U.N. sponsored climate change talks in Copenhagen in December. In this role, Sweden (in collaboration with its other 26 EU member states) will likely take an ambitious position vis-a-vis where future global climate change policy will go. (It is worth noting that Sweden, and its impressive government and group of civil servants, is perhaps the most admired and respected holder of the EU presidency, which is rotated among the EU's member states.)  But this is getting a bit far afield from commenting about our program's great friend in Stockholm and the EU.

This coming semester (which begins in mid-August) I will be teaching "EU Law & Policy," and Marcus will most likely speak to the class from Sweden about the Swedish EU presidency.  Of course I would prefer to take the entire class right to Stockholm, but there is the slight matter of cost to do so...

If you check out the video link, Marcus is the one on the right-side of the panel.  Oh, and one more thing -- the video is all in Swedish so for those (like me) who don't speak Swedish, it may be a bit difficult (but not impossible) to follow!

EPA GHG Endangerment Proposal: "A Game Changer"

One day after the U.S. EPA's historic proposed endangerment finding involving greenhouse gases, the sentiment across the country is that the Obama Administration's action has changed the political landscape.

U.S. Rep. Edward Markey, chairman of a U.S. House Energy Committee subcommittee that will begin hearings next week on legislation calling for a GHG cap-and-trade system and a long-time supporter of GHG reductions, characterized the decision as "a game changer," The Wall Street Journal reported today.  "It's now no longer a choice between doing nothing.  It is now a choice between regulation and legislation."

Consequently, a few things are clearer today:

• The U.S. is going to have a GHG emissions reduction scheme either through legislation or regulation.
• Congress is likely to take a more flexible (including, most importantly establishing a cap-and-trade system) approach to reducing GHG emissions; this is largely linked to the fact that the multiple stakeholder groups will have greater influence over elected representatives and senators than the "unelected" regulators in the EPA.
  
• No industry sector will want to be left out of the political discussions; expect increased lobbying of politicians as well as more TV and radio ads by stakeholder groups aiming to frame the overall issue; from past experience industry is well aware that it is easier to have "a seat at the table" during the legislative process as contrasted to the regulatory process.
• Left-wing and right-wing talkers, bloggers and other "self-anointed experts" will attempt to rally their own bases; whether this will add anything to the overall debate is questionable at best; what it will do is give the talkers another issue to ruminate over for the foreseeable future and a good way to increase ratings.  
• The U.S. has increased its global credibility in terms of addressing climate change; but the U.S. is so far behind the European Union that even with an enormous effort this year, the U.S. is unlikely to take the global leadership role away from the Europeans (a role, incidentally, that the Europeans greatly cherish).

To paraphrase former U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill, this is not the beginning of the end...rather it is the end of the beginning.

EU Supports U.S. Congressional Climate Change Bill

From the "is this helpful or the kiss of death" file comes word from Brussels that Stavros Dimas, EU Environment Commissioner, is delighted with the Waxman-Markey climate change bill that has been introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The legislation, Mr. Dimas has said, is "really encouraging," according to the BNA International Environment Reporter. Mr. Dimas, who is a strong supporter of the EU emissions trading scheme, went on to say, "I am sure [the U.S.] will come up with even more ambitious [GHG reduction] targets. Let's see how the debate will evolve."

While congressmen and women generally like to have wide support for their proposals, attracting the enthusiastic support of a key EU official may not be what they had in mind.

No offense to Mr. Dimas, but this is sure to become a "talking point" for right-wing U.S. commentators.

The Precautionary Principle Comes to America?

The precautionary principle, a well accepted legal concept in the European Union as well as other places around the world, may become a topic of considerable discussion in America as the result of proposed federal legislation aimed at restricting the use of bisphenol A (BPA), which is used in beverage and food containers.
The precatuionary principle and the federal legislatsion were discussed this morning on National Public Radio's Morning Edition ( "Is 'Better Safe Than Sorry' Reason Enough for Law?" April 15, 2009).

Swedish Report Says U.S. Has Reached "Critical Political Tipping Point" Regarding Climate Politics

The Obama Administration has "already begun to demonstrate its seriousness about climate change through actions being taken within U.S. borders," according to a new report commissioned by the Swedish government.

The report, "Sea Change: U.S. Climate Policy Prospects Under the Obama Administration, written by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), was prepared in the run-up to Sweden's July 1-December 31 presidency of the European Union.  In this role, Sweden will speak on behalf of the EU at the Copenhagen U.N. climate conference in December.  Based on Sweden's historical performance in the EU presidency, the U.S., and the rest of the world, should expect a well-focused and effectively-argued case being made on behalf of the EU.

The report notes the "dramatic shift" in U.S. climate politics in terms of the executive branch and points out that additional changes are taking place at regional, state, and local levels.  "In short, the conditions for adopting and implementing forceful measures for addressing climate change look far better than at any time previously."

While describing this as "good news," the report goes on to caution, "Nevertheless, some of the important circumstances that condition the development of U.S. climate politics remain stubbornly fixed.  Numerous domestic structural, institutional, and political hurdles remain in place.  These make it unlikely that the most comprehensive measures now being pursued, such as an economy-wide cap-and-trade system, will have been adopted by both House and Senate and signed by the president prior to the [December talks]."

Despite the report's careful analysis of the American political situation, it seems to have missed one key point: the role that money plays in American politics.  Regardless of the merits of the underlying case for cap-and-trade, the fact is that the big industrial interests will be in the shadows currying favor and support.  

Consequently, will the U.S. join the Europeans in the tough fight ahead in terms of climate change?  Time (and unfortunately probably money) will tell.