Part I: China Expert Dr. Elizabeth Economy Discusses China's Environment and the Challenges it Poses for the World's Most Populated Country

Dr. Elizabeth Economy recently spoke about "China and the Environment" in a lecture at the University of Denver. This posting is the first of two parts about Dr. Economy's observations about China, a country that will likely assume in the next two to three decades the mantle of the world's largest economy.

Dr. Economy, CV Starr Senior Fellow and Director of Asia Studies for the Council on Foreign Relations, is particularly well qualified to comment about China's environment. Author of the award-winning 2004 book "The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future," Dr. Economy is a world renown expert on the development and rise of this 1.3 billion person country.

Dr. Economy began by noting that New York Times columnist Tom Friedman has referred to China as the "green Sputnik," referring to the space launch achieved by the U.S.S.R. in the late 1950s. But, as she noted, the real question is whether China will be known as the world's leading polluter or a "green technology" giant that the rest of the world may learn from.

I. China Today

China's current challenge reflects that of a developing country that is also, in many respects, a developed industrial country. This plays out in many ways. One third of China's land suffers from the fall of acid rain. The country relies on coal for 70 percent of its energy. This is a key problem, particularly when one understands that the consumption of coal in China doubled between 2000 and 2007. Meanwhile, the energy that is generated in China is used in a wildly inefficient manner thus further exacerbating the country's coal-fired energy woes. Then there is the matter of the vast numbers of Chinese who are moving from rural areas to cities. China expects 400 million people to move from rural areas to cities between now and 2030.

To the average Chinese person water pollution and scarcity are the two biggest problems. Part of this problem is a result of the fact that one third of the industrial waste water generated in the country is poured without any treatment whatsoever into water bodies.

Then there is land degradation. A quarter of the country's land is highly degraded or dessert. "This is a serious and growing problem," Dr. Economy observed.

China's role as a global emitter of pollutants is also an increasing issue. It is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide -- a "title" it wrested from the United States just last year -- and it is also the largest polluter of the Pacific Ocean. Moreover, as Chinese companies venture abroad in search of investment opportunities, all too often they also "export poor environmental practices."

On the other hand, Dr. Economy said the Chinese leadership has recently begun to take a more serious look at environmental issues. "They have targeted improving the environment because they know the environment affects social, political, and economic issues," she said. For example, environmental pollution results in the "sacrifice" of eight to 12 percent of the gross domestic product. "It is hard to know how they arrived at these numbers, but the leaders are asking about this and view it as a very important issue," she said.

There is also growing concern about the relationship of the environment to public health, particularly with respect to the lack of clean water. Currently 700 million people drink polluted water, and of those 190 million drink water that is harmful to their health.

Perhaps the biggest issue is environmental degradation and social unrest, and this will grow in intensity, she predicted, even in rural areas. There is beginning to be a "not in my backyard" mentality involving chemical plants and other potential harmful installations.

And finally is the matter of how China is perceived in the world. "They don't want to be perceived as a big polluter," Dr. Economy said.

Part two will appear tomorrow.